Sample Output
Scenario Builder: Sample Output
This sample reproduces a Fortius Scenario Bundle, the branch analysis delivered on the Command plan. One triggering event is developed into three parallel branches over the same evidence base, then synthesised into probability bands, divergence triggers, and a decision table. Each branch below is condensed to its headline fields; in the product, every branch is a complete 12-field Intelligence Brief. The client's identity is rewritten here for a representative profile: an EU-headquartered LNG shipping operator.
The IRGC Navy announces a three-day closure drill across the Strait of Hormuz approaches, 21 to 23 July 2026.
War-risk premiums on Hormuz transits spike for 10 to 15 days, then decay as the exercise closes on schedule. No cargo is delayed.
Both committed Q3 transits sail on their original laycans at an elevated premium. Cost impact is bounded and insurable; no rerouting is required.
Selective boardings produce corridor delays of one to three weeks. Premiums step-change rather than decay, and charterers begin invoking deviation clauses.
The 24 July Ras Laffan slot likely misses its laycan. A Cape of Good Hope deviation adds roughly 14 days and an estimated $2.1M in fuel, hire, and premium.
Force-majeure declarations spread across Q3 fixtures. Hormuz cover is withdrawn rather than repriced, and spot LNG moves double digits.
Both Q3 cargoes go to force majeure. The material exposure is structural: 2027 corridor contracting reprices around explicit closure clauses.
A NAVTEX warning extending the exercise box or its dates beyond 23 July.
CONFIRMS DOWNSIDE · DURING THE DRILL WINDOWIRGC fast-attack craft dispersing to forward bases instead of returning to Bandar Abbas.
CONFIRMS DOWNSIDE / TAIL RISK · DURING THE DRILL WINDOWAn insurer withdrawing Hormuz cover outright rather than repricing it.
CONFIRMS TAIL RISK · NEXT 45 DAYSThe exercise concluding on schedule with no boarding incident.
CONFIRMS BASE · BY 24 JULYSwap the 24 July Ras Laffan slot to a non-Hormuz cargo.
Binding war-risk quotes exceed 0.7% of hull value.
The NAVTEX stays limited to the announced exercise box.
Lock Q4 fixtures with explicit closure and deviation clauses.
Two or more insurers withdraw Hormuz cover.
Premiums decay to pre-drill levels by mid-August.
Stand up a Cape of Good Hope routing plan with bunkering contracts.
Any boarding incident occurs during the exercise.
The drill ends on schedule with no interdiction.
The drill is most likely theatre with an insurance bill attached: the base branch resolves in weeks and its cost is bounded. The cheap hedges are administrative and available now: move one loading slot and buy war-risk quotes before the corridor reprices. The expensive mistakes live in the tail, where the signal to act is cover being withdrawn, not headlines. Watch the insurance market, not the exercise.
Scenario Bundles are built on the same grounded evidence base as every Fortius output, so the difference between branches is analytical, not informational. The free Threat Register gives you the scan-level view first: three scans, no card required.